Scientists from the Institute of Environmental Protection and Heating Systems at Riga Technical University (RTU), in cooperation with partners, have developed a modelling tool to assess the impact of policy decisions across various sectors – energy, industry, agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF), as well as waste management and transport. Its targeted application will help evaluate the interactions between different policies and forecast their effects on achieving climate neutrality goals and on national development up to 2050.
The interactive modelling tool will be presented at a meeting of the Saeima’s Committee on Economic, Agricultural, Environmental and Regional Policy on 25 February at 10:00.
“Decisions taken in the past always have consequences for the future. However, the future is not identical to the past – it is essential to take into account the cause-and-effect relationships of different actions and policies. The tool helps forecast the potential consequences of any policy – to see what will happen by 2050 when choosing one or another development scenario, and to adapt in time,” emphasises Andra Blumberga, Tenured Professor at the Institute of Environmental Protection and Heating Systems of the Faculty of Natural Sciences and Technologies at Riga Technical University (RTU), and an expert in system dynamics modelling.
Climate is a complex system influenced by a wide range of environmental, economic, social, technological and political factors; therefore, policy assessment cannot be linear. Decisions in areas such as forestry or precision agriculture may directly affect future CO₂ emissions and biodiversity, while smarter manufacturing or changes in the transport sector may drive the transformation of the energy sector. The modelling tool can provide a clear answer regarding the impact of a fundamental shift in Latvia’s climate policy direction or specific activities, such as the development of nuclear energy, waste incineration, or restructuring of the transport system.
The modelling tool – an integrated national climate neutrality decision-support system – is based on a system dynamics approach and big data. It is highly detailed, incorporating analysis of climate policy linkages and evaluation of climate change mitigation and adaptation instruments. The tool is designed to support policymakers in introducing data-driven decisions and sustainable approaches in climate policy.
It was developed within the framework of the National Research Programme project “Decision-Support System for Achieving Climate Neutrality Goals”, specifically under the project “Operational Climate Neutrality Decision Models for Implementation”. The project is implemented by RTU in cooperation with the University of Latvia, Vidzeme University of Applied Sciences, and Rīga Stradiņš University.
During its development, meetings were held with experts and policymakers from various sectors to ensure the model meets the needs of end users. Seminars and training sessions on the use of the modelling tool were also organised. Future environmental engineers are already learning to use the tool as part of their studies. Positive feedback has also been received from Estonian climate policy professionals.
